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U.S. Equity Leading Indicators

Equity markets are driven by investor emotions and random events near-term. Longer-term, equity markets tend to be driven by fundamentals and earnings growth. The Quant Pack U.S. Equity Leading Indicators provide a 12-month forecast for corporate earnings and a data-driven fair value estimate for the S&P 500.

  • 12-month forecast of year-over-year S&P 500 earnings growth

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  • Leading Indicator based on a composite of 15 macro inputs that exhibit a high statistical correlation with future S&P 500 earnings growth.

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  • The indicator (1) provides a long-term view on the direction of earnings, and (2) informs portfolio positioning across sectors and asset classes.​

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S&P 500 Earnings Leading Indicator
Leads Actual Results by 12-months

MarketDesk Quant Pack U.S. Earnings Leading Indicator

Model Signals

  • Real-time price target model for the S&P 500 

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  • Two fair value frameworks: (1) equity risk premium and (2) cost of capital analysis. 

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  • The price target model (1) provides the implied level of upside or downside risk from current levels, and (2) informs stock vs bond asset allocation decisions.​

S&P 500 Real-Time Price Target Indicator
Implied Upside/Downside from Current Levels

MarketDesk Quant Pack S&P 500 Price Target

Model Signals

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