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U.S. Equity Leading Indicators
Equity markets are driven by investor emotions and random events near-term. Longer-term, equity markets tend to be driven by fundamentals and earnings growth. The Quant Pack U.S. Equity Leading Indicators provide a 12-month forecast for corporate earnings and a data-driven fair value estimate for the S&P 500.
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12-month forecast of year-over-year S&P 500 earnings growth
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Leading Indicator based on a composite of 15 macro inputs that exhibit a high statistical correlation with future S&P 500 earnings growth.
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The indicator (1) provides a long-term view on the direction of earnings, and (2) informs portfolio positioning across sectors and asset classes.
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Real-time price target model for the S&P 500
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Two fair value frameworks: (1) equity risk premium and (2) cost of capital analysis.
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The price target model (1) provides the implied level of upside or downside risk from current levels, and (2) informs stock vs bond asset allocation decisions.
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