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Asset Allocation Leading Indicators

Asset allocation comes down to answering three to five key positioning questions each year. The Quant Pack's Leading Indicator Framework is designed to simplify this process by providing early signals on economic activity, which can (1) eliminate the guesswork, (2) inform portfolio decisions, and (3) enhance portfolio returns.

  • Risk On/Off signal to guide portfolio positioning throughout economic cycles 

  • Aggregates 20+ Quant Pack indicators across Economics, Equity Markets, and Credit Markets into one straightforward asset allocation signal.

  • The data-driven indicator (1) identifies shifts in the broad macro regime and (2) helps manage portfolio betas, with the aim of improving risk-adjusted returns.

U.S. Macro Regime Indicator
Provides a 12-Month Macro Forecast

MarketDesk Quant Pack Macro Regime Indicator
  • Estimates the probability of a bear market occurring in the next 12 months 

  • Leading indicator based on a composite of 12 macro inputs to assess the risk of a bear market (20% selloff in the S&P 500) during the next 12 months.

  • The data-driven indicator (1) provides a probability level of a bear market over the next 12 months and (2) informs portfolio positioning across asset classes.​

U.S. Bear Market Probability Indicator
Provides a 12-Month Estimate

MarketDesk Quant Pack Bear Market Probability Indicator
  • The data-driven indicator is based on a composite of 8 macro inputs that accurately and objectively label the current stage of the U.S. business cycle: Recovery, Expansion, Slowdown, or Contraction.

  • Defining the current stage of the business cycle is a crucial step in developing an asset allocation framework. The indicator is best used to identify the overall macro environment and associated investment themes, such as cyclical vs defensive positioning, equity vs credit, and positioning across various equity factors.​

U.S. Business Cycle Indicator
Real-Time Quantitative Index

MarketDesk Quant Pack U.S. Business Cycle Indicator

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