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U.S. Economic Leading Indicators

Economic factors influence investment trends, credit growth, corporate earnings, and market cycles. The Quant Pack U.S. Economic Leading Indicators provide 6- to 12-month forecasts across manufacturing activity, inflation, employment, and consumer health to inform portfolio positioning.

  • 12-month forecast of U.S. manufacturing activity

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  • Leading indicator based on a composite of 14 macro inputs that exhibit a high statistical correlation with the year-over-year (Y/Y) change in Manufacturing PMI.

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  • The data-driven indicator (1) provides a long-term view into the overall direction of U.S. manufacturing activity and (2) informs portfolio positioning across asset classes.​

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U.S. PMI Momentum Indicator
Leads Actual Results by 12 Months

MarketDesk Quant Pack U.S. PMI Momentum Indicator

Model Signals

U.S. Unemployment Indicator
Leads Actual Results by 12 Months

MarketDesk Quant Pack U.S. Unemployment Leading Indicator

  • 12-month forecast of the U.S. unemployment rate 

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  • Leading indicator based on a composite of 6 macro inputs that exhibit a high statistical correlation with future unemployment trends.

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  • The data-driven indicator (1) spots key 'turning points' in future employment trends and (2) provides early signals to manage portfolio risk.​

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Model Signals

  • 3- to 6-month forecast of U.S. inflation changes 

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  • MarketDesk maintains inflation indicators for headline consumer price index (CPI) and five underlying indexes: Food, Shelter, Energy, Commodities, and Services.

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  • These indicators use 21 macro inputs that exhibit a high statistical correlation with future inflation trends, including wages, money supply, energy prices, home values, movements in the U.S. dollar, regional Fed business surveys, and freight indices.​

U.S. CPI Leading Indicators
Leads Actual Results by 3-6 Months

MarketDesk Quant Pack U.S. Inflation Leading Indicator

U.S. GDP Indicator
Leads Actual Results by 6 Months

MarketDesk Quant Pack U.S. GDP Leading Indicator

  • 6-month forecast of U.S. GDP growth 

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  • Leading indicator based on a composite of 7 macro inputs that exhibit a high statistical correlation with the year-over-year (Y/Y) change in U.S. GDP growth.

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  • The indicator (1) forecasts the overall direction and growth of U.S. economic activity, which (2) informs portfolio positioning across asset classes.​

Model Signals

U.S. Home Price Indicator
Leads Actual Results by 12 Months

MarketDesk Quant Pack U.S. Home Price Leading Indicator

  • 12-month forecast of the change in U.S. home prices

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  • Leading indicator based on a composite of 5 macro inputs that exhibit a high statistical correlation with future changes in the U.S. National Home Price Index.

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  • The indicator is not directly actionable in public markets, but changes in home prices indirectly impact several key segments of the economy, including consumer sentiment and spending.​

Model Signals

U.S. Consumer Health Indicator
Real-Time Quantitative Index

MarketDesk Quant Pack Consumer Health Indicator.PNG

  • Real-time pulse of consumer health and future behavior 

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  • Data-driven composite of 5 key inputs: labor markets, savings, personal income, debt, and sentiment. The indicator historically leads U.S. recessions by 3-6 months.

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  • During the past 70 years, consumer spending on goods and services has accounted for ~63% of annual U.S. GDP growth. Financial health and sentiment are key factors in the U.S. consumer's willingness and ability to spend.​

Model Signals

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