U.S. Economic Leading Indicators
Economic factors influence investment trends, credit growth, corporate earnings, and market cycles. The Quant Pack U.S. Economic Leading Indicators provide 6- to 12-month forecasts across manufacturing activity, inflation, employment, and consumer health to inform portfolio positioning.
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12-month forecast of U.S. manufacturing activity
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Leading indicator based on a composite of 14 macro inputs that exhibit a high statistical correlation with the year-over-year (Y/Y) change in Manufacturing PMI.
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The data-driven indicator (1) provides a long-term view into the overall direction of U.S. manufacturing activity and (2) informs portfolio positioning across asset classes.​
U.S. PMI Momentum Indicator
Leads Actual Results by 12 Months
U.S. Unemployment Indicator
Leads Actual Results by 12 Months
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12-month forecast of the U.S. unemployment rate
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Leading indicator based on a composite of 6 macro inputs that exhibit a high statistical correlation with future unemployment trends.
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The data-driven indicator (1) spots key 'turning points' in future employment trends and (2) provides early signals to manage portfolio risk.​
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3- to 6-month forecast of U.S. inflation changes
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MarketDesk maintains inflation indicators for headline consumer price index (CPI) and five underlying indexes: Food, Shelter, Energy, Commodities, and Services.
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These indicators use 21 macro inputs that exhibit a high statistical correlation with future inflation trends, including wages, money supply, energy prices, home values, movements in the U.S. dollar, regional Fed business surveys, and freight indices.​
U.S. CPI Leading Indicators
Leads Actual Results by 3-6 Months
U.S. GDP Indicator
Leads Actual Results by 6 Months
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6-month forecast of U.S. GDP growth
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Leading indicator based on a composite of 7 macro inputs that exhibit a high statistical correlation with the year-over-year (Y/Y) change in U.S. GDP growth.
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The indicator (1) forecasts the overall direction and growth of U.S. economic activity, which (2) informs portfolio positioning across asset classes.​
U.S. Home Price Indicator
Leads Actual Results by 12 Months
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12-month forecast of the change in U.S. home prices
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Leading indicator based on a composite of 5 macro inputs that exhibit a high statistical correlation with future changes in the U.S. National Home Price Index.
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The indicator is not directly actionable in public markets, but changes in home prices indirectly impact several key segments of the economy, including consumer sentiment and spending.​
U.S. Consumer Health Indicator
Real-Time Quantitative Index
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Real-time pulse of consumer health and future behavior
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Data-driven composite of 5 key inputs: labor markets, savings, personal income, debt, and sentiment. The indicator historically leads U.S. recessions by 3-6 months.
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During the past 70 years, consumer spending on goods and services has accounted for ~63% of annual U.S. GDP growth. Financial health and sentiment are key factors in the U.S. consumer's willingness and ability to spend.​
