Credit Market Leading Indicators
Credit access and financial conditions are foundational drivers of economic activity and growth. Our clients rely on the Quant Pack's Credit Leading Indicators to forecast future macro trends, manage risk, and inform credit positioning.
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12-month forecast of the net % of banks tightening lending standards
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Leading indicator based on a composite of 6 macro inputs that exhibit a high statistical correlation with the year-over-year change in bank lending standards.
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The data-driven indicator (1) forecasts changes in bank lending standards, which impact credit availability and economic activity, and (2) informs portfolio positioning across asset classes.
U.S. Lending Standards Indicator
Leads Actual Results by 12 Months
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Real-time measure of the cost and availability of accessing capital
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Leading indicator based on a composite of 8 volatility-adjusted inputs, including interest rates, credit spreads, lending rates, VIX, equity prices, and the U.S. dollar.
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The data-driven indicator (1) tracks changes in the availability and cost of credit, which can (2) provide an early warning sign of potential financial stress.​
U.S. Financial Conditions Indicator
Real-Time Quantitative Index
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3-month forecast of the year-over-year change in the U.S. dollar index
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The U.S. dollar (USD) impacts asset allocation decisions, particularly investments in international stocks and bonds, and can serve as a measure of investor sentiment due to its safe haven status.
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The data-driven indicator (1) tracks USD's directional momentum, (2) forecasts major near-term moves in USD, and (3) highlights potential turning points in USD.​
USD Technical Indicator
Leads Actual Results by 3 Months
