How Leading Indicators Guide Portfolio Management
of Changes in the Economy
Leading indicators can provide early signals of changes in the economy, allowing investors to take advantage of potential opportunities and manage risk proactively. Early signals can be used to guide asset allocation and position portfolios ahead of potential trend changes.
from Investment Decisions
Leading indicators can provide a consistent and repeatable framework that helps to remove human emotion and market noise from the decision-making process.
Risk-Adjusted Portfolio Returns
Leading indicators can help guide asset allocation and position portfolios ahead of potential trend changes. Investors can develop a more accurate assessment of the risk and return potential of a portfolio decision.
What is a Leading Indicator?
A leading indicator is a measurable economic factor or set of data that tends to change before the overall economy. The underlying premise behind leading indicators is that certain economic variables tend to change in advance of broader shifts in the economy. When analyzed collectively, these changes can provide a comprehensive picture of the future economic landscape and may help forecast economic activity.
Examples of leading indicators include building permits, weekly initial jobless claims, bank lending standards, manufacturing new orders, and regional Fed business surveys.
Introducing the Quant Pack
The Quant Pack is a data subscription with access to 20+ proprietary leading indicators built to guide asset allocation decisions, eliminate guesswork, enhance investment returns, and decrease your research workload.
Our clients include hedge funds, family offices, wealth managers, and individual investors.
Featured Quant Pack Indicators
S&P 500 Earnings Growth Indicator
U.S. Bear Market Probability Indicator
Quant Pack Model Signals
A library of model signals that are based on the Quant Pack indicators and designed to identify the most likely path forward for markets. The systematic framework employs a weight-of-the-evidence approach that is designed to (1) minimize false signals and (2) optimize the risk/reward outcome for each portfolio decision.
The model signals can be used to inform asset allocation positioning, guide tactical trading, enhance risk management, and develop bespoke models. The list of model signals is updated each week with the release of the Quant Pack newsletter.
Key Benefits: Efficient, consistent, and repeatable.
Free Report: U.S. Macro Regime Indicator
The MarketDesk U.S. Macro Regime Indicator (USMRI) utilizes a data-driven process to (1) define the current macro environment and (2) forecast the trajectory of the U.S. economy over the next 12 months. It aggregates 20+ Quant Pack indicators to produce one straightforward signal to increase or decrease your portfolio risk.
This primer report provides an overview of the macro regime indicator and how to implement it into your portfolio management process.